A Machine-Learning Algorithm to Predict the Likelihood of Prolonged Opioid Use Following Arthroscopic Hip Surgery

Purpose: To develop a machine-learning algorithm and clinician-friendly tool predicting the likelihood of prolonged opioid use (>90 days) following hip arthroscopy. Methods: The Military Data Repository was queried for all adult patients undergoing arthroscopic hip surgery between 2012 and 2017. Demographic, health history, and prescription records were extracted for all included patients. Opioid use was divided into preoperative use (30-365 days before surgery), perioperative use (30 days before surgery through 14 days after surgery), postoperative use (14-90 days after surgery), and prolonged postoperative use (90-365 days after surgery). Six machine-learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, Gradient Boosting Machine, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Elastic Net Regularization, and artificial neural network) were developed. Area under the receiver operating curve and Brier scores were calculated for each model. Decision curve analysis was applied to assess clinical utility. Local-Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations were used to demonstrate factor weights within the selected model. Results: A total of 6,760 patients were included, of whom 2,762 (40.9%) filled at least 1 opioid prescription >90 days after surgery. The artificial neural network model showed superior discrimination and calibration with area under the receiver operating curve = 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.68-0.74) and Brier score = 0.21 (95% confidence interval 0.20-0.22). Postsurgical opioid use, age, and preoperative opioid use had the most influence on model outcome. Lesser factors included the presence of a psychological comorbidity and strong history of a substance use disorder. Conclusions: The artificial neural network model shows sufficient validity and discrimination for use in clinical practice. The 5 identified factors (age, preoperative opioid use, postoperative opioid use, presence of a mental health comorbidity, and presence of a preoperative substance use disorder) accurately predict the likelihood of prolonged opioid use following hip arthroscopy. Level of Evidence: III, retrospective comparative prognostic trial.