A mathematical model of hemorrhagic shock: The future of trauma triage

Jeremy W. Cannon*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


Trauma scores have attempted for decades to identify individuals likely to survive a traumatic insult. However, current systems are limited because they do not account for the complex physiologic mechanisms that unfold after a traumatic event. This article describes a new technique in trauma scoring that models these interdependent mechanisms and thereby seeks to predict the patient's ultimate short-term outcome and survival time based on the severity of the traumatic insult. This model uses three parameters in a system of ordinary differential equations to make this prediction: mean arterial pressure, neurologic function, and systemic acidosis/base deficit. This study demonstrates the accuracy of this model compared with known survival time data from previous animal studies. This model represents a new prognostic tool that can easily be integrated into a computer software package designed to facilitate quick and accurate triage decisions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)312-316
Number of pages5
JournalMilitary Medicine
Issue number4
StatePublished - 2002
Externally publishedYes


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