Estimating the decay of protective antibodies induced by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination and hybrid immunity

McKenna D. Roe; Si’Ana A. Coggins; Emily S. Darcey; Emilie Goguet; Hannah Haines-Hull; Dominic Esposito; Cara H. Olsen; Simon D. Pollett; Edward Mitre; Eric D. Laing

doi:10.1038/s44298-025-00156-3

Estimating the decay of protective antibodies induced by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination and hybrid immunity

McKenna D. Roe, Si’Ana A. Coggins, Emily S. Darcey, Emilie Goguet, Hannah Haines-Hull, Dominic Esposito, Cara H. Olsen, Simon D. Pollett, Edward Mitre, Eric D. Laing^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Starting in 2020, we quantified anti-wildtype SARS-CoV-2 spike sera IgG at monthly intervals from generally healthy adults after various doses of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination and in the context of hybrid immunity. Confirmed post-vaccination infections and subclinical infections identified by longitudinal serology were removed from vaccine-only analyses. Over 400 days, the two-dose vaccine-alone antibody response decayed at a half-life (t_1/2) of 59.8 days compared with a t_1/2 of 99.7 days after receipt of one booster dose. In the hybrid immunity model, the t_1/2 was greater at 241 days. Using cut-offs for correlation of protection obtained in a prior study, we modeled that individuals with hybrid immunity maintain antibody levels above a 75% correlate of immunity for 283 days after an immune-boosting event. These data offer insights into SARS-CoV-2 antibody decay kinetics that may inform COVID-19 vaccine timing in the younger (age under 60), healthy adult population.

Original language	English
Article number	76
Journal	NPJ Viruses
Volume	3
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s44298-025-00156-3
State	Published - Dec 2025

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10.1038/s44298-025-00156-3

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@article{849575aae7df45bf9a292dfa257467c7,

title = "Estimating the decay of protective antibodies induced by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination and hybrid immunity",

abstract = "Starting in 2020, we quantified anti-wildtype SARS-CoV-2 spike sera IgG at monthly intervals from generally healthy adults after various doses of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination and in the context of hybrid immunity. Confirmed post-vaccination infections and subclinical infections identified by longitudinal serology were removed from vaccine-only analyses. Over 400 days, the two-dose vaccine-alone antibody response decayed at a half-life (t1/2) of 59.8 days compared with a t1/2 of 99.7 days after receipt of one booster dose. In the hybrid immunity model, the t1/2 was greater at 241 days. Using cut-offs for correlation of protection obtained in a prior study, we modeled that individuals with hybrid immunity maintain antibody levels above a 75% correlate of immunity for 283 days after an immune-boosting event. These data offer insights into SARS-CoV-2 antibody decay kinetics that may inform COVID-19 vaccine timing in the younger (age under 60), healthy adult population.",

author = "Roe, {McKenna D.} and Coggins, {Si{\textquoteright}Ana A.} and Darcey, {Emily S.} and Emilie Goguet and Hannah Haines-Hull and Dominic Esposito and Olsen, {Cara H.} and Pollett, {Simon D.} and Edward Mitre and Laing, {Eric D.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply 2025.",

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doi = "10.1038/s44298-025-00156-3",

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AU - Roe, McKenna D.

AU - Coggins, Si’Ana A.

AU - Darcey, Emily S.

AU - Goguet, Emilie

AU - Haines-Hull, Hannah

AU - Esposito, Dominic

AU - Olsen, Cara H.

AU - Pollett, Simon D.

AU - Mitre, Edward

AU - Laing, Eric D.

PY - 2025/12

Y1 - 2025/12

N2 - Starting in 2020, we quantified anti-wildtype SARS-CoV-2 spike sera IgG at monthly intervals from generally healthy adults after various doses of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination and in the context of hybrid immunity. Confirmed post-vaccination infections and subclinical infections identified by longitudinal serology were removed from vaccine-only analyses. Over 400 days, the two-dose vaccine-alone antibody response decayed at a half-life (t1/2) of 59.8 days compared with a t1/2 of 99.7 days after receipt of one booster dose. In the hybrid immunity model, the t1/2 was greater at 241 days. Using cut-offs for correlation of protection obtained in a prior study, we modeled that individuals with hybrid immunity maintain antibody levels above a 75% correlate of immunity for 283 days after an immune-boosting event. These data offer insights into SARS-CoV-2 antibody decay kinetics that may inform COVID-19 vaccine timing in the younger (age under 60), healthy adult population.

AB - Starting in 2020, we quantified anti-wildtype SARS-CoV-2 spike sera IgG at monthly intervals from generally healthy adults after various doses of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination and in the context of hybrid immunity. Confirmed post-vaccination infections and subclinical infections identified by longitudinal serology were removed from vaccine-only analyses. Over 400 days, the two-dose vaccine-alone antibody response decayed at a half-life (t1/2) of 59.8 days compared with a t1/2 of 99.7 days after receipt of one booster dose. In the hybrid immunity model, the t1/2 was greater at 241 days. Using cut-offs for correlation of protection obtained in a prior study, we modeled that individuals with hybrid immunity maintain antibody levels above a 75% correlate of immunity for 283 days after an immune-boosting event. These data offer insights into SARS-CoV-2 antibody decay kinetics that may inform COVID-19 vaccine timing in the younger (age under 60), healthy adult population.

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