TY - JOUR
T1 - Novel predictors of sepsis outperform the american burn association sepsis criteria in the burn intensive care unit patient
AU - Mann-Salinas, Elizabeth A.
AU - Baun, Mara M.
AU - Meininger, Janet C.
AU - Murray, Clinton K.
AU - Aden, James K.
AU - Wolf, Steven E.
AU - Wade, Charles E.
PY - 2013/1
Y1 - 2013/1
N2 - The purpose of this study was to determine whether systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and American Burn Association (ABA) criteria predict sepsis in the burn patient and develop a model representing the best combination of novel clinical sepsis predictors. A retrospective, case-controlled, within-patient comparison of burn patients admitted to a single intensive care unit from January 2005 to September 2010 was made. Blood culture results were paired with documented sepsis: positive-sick, negative-sick (collectively defined as sick), and negative-not sick. Data for all predictors were collected for the 72 hours before blood culture. Variables were evaluated using regression and area under the curve (AUC) analyses. Fifty-nine subjects represented 177 culture periods. SIRS criteria were not discriminative: 98% of the subjects met criteria. ABA sepsis criteria were different on the day before (P = .004). The six best-fit variables identified for the model included heart rate > 130 beats per min, mean arterial pressure < 60 mm Hg, base deficit <-6 mEq/L, temperature < 36 C, use of vasoactive medications, and glucose > 150 mg/dl. The model was significant in predicting positive-sick and sick, with an AUC of 0.775 (P < .001) and 0.714 (P < .001), respectively; comparatively, the ABA criteria AUC was 0.619 (P = .028) and 0.597 (P = .035), respectively. Usefulness of the ABA criteria to predict sepsis is limited to the day before blood culture is obtained. A significant contribution of this research is the identification of six novel sepsis predictors for the burn patient.
AB - The purpose of this study was to determine whether systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and American Burn Association (ABA) criteria predict sepsis in the burn patient and develop a model representing the best combination of novel clinical sepsis predictors. A retrospective, case-controlled, within-patient comparison of burn patients admitted to a single intensive care unit from January 2005 to September 2010 was made. Blood culture results were paired with documented sepsis: positive-sick, negative-sick (collectively defined as sick), and negative-not sick. Data for all predictors were collected for the 72 hours before blood culture. Variables were evaluated using regression and area under the curve (AUC) analyses. Fifty-nine subjects represented 177 culture periods. SIRS criteria were not discriminative: 98% of the subjects met criteria. ABA sepsis criteria were different on the day before (P = .004). The six best-fit variables identified for the model included heart rate > 130 beats per min, mean arterial pressure < 60 mm Hg, base deficit <-6 mEq/L, temperature < 36 C, use of vasoactive medications, and glucose > 150 mg/dl. The model was significant in predicting positive-sick and sick, with an AUC of 0.775 (P < .001) and 0.714 (P < .001), respectively; comparatively, the ABA criteria AUC was 0.619 (P = .028) and 0.597 (P = .035), respectively. Usefulness of the ABA criteria to predict sepsis is limited to the day before blood culture is obtained. A significant contribution of this research is the identification of six novel sepsis predictors for the burn patient.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84873081387&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1097/BCR.0b013e31826450b5
DO - 10.1097/BCR.0b013e31826450b5
M3 - Article
C2 - 23135212
AN - SCOPUS:84873081387
SN - 1559-047X
VL - 34
SP - 31
EP - 43
JO - Journal of Burn Care and Research
JF - Journal of Burn Care and Research
IS - 1
ER -