The inability to predict futility in hemorrhaging trauma patients using 4-hour transfusion volumes and rates

BACKGROUND Blood shortages and utilization stewardship have motivated the trauma community to evaluate futility cutoffs during massive transfusions (MTs). Recent single-center studies have confirmed meaningful survival in ultra-MT (≥20 U) and super-MT (≥50 U), while others advocate for earlier futility cut points. We sought to evaluate whether transfusion volume and intensity cut points could predict 100% mortality in a multicenter analysis. METHODS A prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study was performed at seven trauma centers. Injured patients at risk for MT who required both blood transfusion and hemorrhage control procedures were enrolled. Four-hour volumes and intensities (average units per hour) were evaluated. Primary outcome of interest was 28-day mortality. RESULTS A total of 1,047 patients met the study inclusion with an overall mortality rate of 17% (n = 176). The median age was 35 years, 80% were male, and 62% had a penetrating mechanism, with an Injury Severity Score of 22. At 4 hours, transfusion volumes below 110 U and transfusion intensity averaging up to 21 U/h did not demonstrate futility. Total transfusion volume above 110 U was associated with 100% mortality (n = 9). Multivariable analysis noted only nonmodifiable risk factors as predictors of increased mortality (blunt mechanism, shock index). CONCLUSION In this study from seven Level 1 trauma centers, survival was observed at transfusion volumes up to 110 U and at transfusion velocities up to 21 U/h during the first 4 hours of resuscitation. Data are limited on transfusion volumes above 110 U in the first 4 hours. Survival can be observed in both the ultra and super-MT settings. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Therapeutic/Care Management; Level II.